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CLI Utilities @jamierossouw Updated 2/21/2026

Argus Edge OpenClaw Plugin & Skill | ClawHub

Looking to integrate Argus Edge into your AI workflows? This free OpenClaw plugin from ClawHub helps you automate cli utilities tasks instantly, without having to write custom tools from scratch.

What this skill does

Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly criterion, and applies freshness/consensus guards. Validated at 77.8% win rate on primary (fresh) Polymarket bets. Use for prediction market betting, EV calculation, Polymarket strategy, or market making.

Install

npx clawhub@latest install argus-edge

Full SKILL.md

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Metadata table.
nameversiondescriptiontags
argus-edge1.0.0Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly criterion, and applies freshness/consensus guards. Validated at 77.8% win rate on primary (fresh) Polymarket bets. Use for prediction market betting, EV calculation, Polymarket strategy, or market making.
polymarketprediction-marketsedgekellybetting-strategyevcrypto

SKILL.md content below is scrollable.

Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine

The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.

Core Formula

Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (<30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds

Strategy Rules

Freshness Guard

  • Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
  • Prioritize markets <30 min old (primary window)
  • Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)

Asset Calibration

Asset TA Reliability Bias Min Score
BTC 0.75 Neutral ±3
ETH 0.80 UP+0.05 ±2
SOL 0.90 UP+0.05 ±1
XRP 0.70 UP+0.08 ±2

Usage

Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now

Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market

Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing

Battle-Tested

Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).

Original Repository URL: https://github.com/openclaw/skills/blob/main/skills/jamierossouw/argus-edge
Latest commit: https://github.com/openclaw/skills/commit/925ca688b09196628321b8dd80a43377754c9301

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